A new poll commissioned by Republican businessman Mike Erickson shows him in a statistical tie with U.S. Rep. Andrea Salinas, the Democrat who narrowly beat him in Oregon’s competitive 6th Congressional District in 2022.
The early August poll of 516 likely voters in the Willamette Valley-based district is the first such survey this year, according to poll aggregator and forecaster FiveThirtyEight. It showed that nearly 45% of voters intended to vote for Salinas, compared to almost 43% for Erickson, though a margin of error of more than 4% meant the result is a statistical tie.
Erickson touted the results in a press release Wednesday, saying it proves he can win in November.
“Congresswoman Salinas has done little to address inflation, rising energy costs and crime in our cities, and it’s no wonder this race is tied,” he said. “This poll proves that we can win, and as a businessman who has created jobs in Oregon, I know what it takes to fix inflation, keep our communities safe, secure our border, and serve as check-and-balance on Kamala Harris’ economic policies that are crippling middle-class families.”
Erickson lost to Salinas by 2.5 points – just more than 7,200 votes – in 2022. He has long blamed that loss on a Constitution Party candidate, Larry McFarland, who garnered more than 6,700 votes from presumably right-leaning voters. No third-party candidates have yet filed in the 6th District this year, though Salinas was cross-nominated by the Independent Party of Oregon.
National Republicans have been slow to coalesce around Erickson, who has run three unsuccessful campaigns for Congress. While the National Republican Congressional Committee is pouring resources into incumbent Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer’s reelection bid in the 5th Congressional District and recently named 4th District challenger Monique DeSpain to its Young Guns program for top candidates, no such designation or support has materialized for Erickson. The national Republican group did set aside more than $6 million to buy ads on Portland TV, and while that money is expected to be used to boost Chavez-DeRemer and Joe Kent in southwest Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, some could shift to the 6th District if the race appears close.
Many didn’t know candidates
The poll was conducted by Cygnal, a national GOP firm that received 2.1 out of three possible stars from FiveThirtyEight for its historical accuracy and transparency. Pollsters found that nearly 40% of those surveyed didn’t know Salinas or had no opinion of her, while 32% of respondents had a favorable impression of her and 30% disapproved of her.
More than half of respondents didn’t know Erickson or didn’t have an opinion of him, while 27% viewed him favorably and 22% viewed him unfavorably. The polling memo said Erickson has a lead with nonaffiliated voters, who make up one-third of the district’s voters.
“Salinas is in a bad spot for an incumbent driven by her freshmen status and far-left positions that are outside the mainstream of the district,” the memo said.
A Capital Chronicle reporter who lives in the 6th District received a link to the poll by text on Aug. 8. Much of it was dedicated to testing negative messages against Salinas, including that she “has turned our neighborhoods into lawless tent cities,” “supports pro-criminal policies that limit law enforcement’s ability to prosecute criminals and keep communities safe,” “voted repeatedly to make your life harder and more expensive by voting to end fossil fuels and a carbon tax scheme that could raise gas prices by another 90 cents per gallon” and “has proven to be an enabler and rubber stamp for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’s failed policies in Washington, despite record inflation, a man-made border crisis, and record levels of drugs pouring into Oregon.”
Meanwhile, the poll asked voters whether they’d be more likely to support Erickson upon hearing that he “supports policies to make America energy independent once again to bring down the price of gas and make us less reliant on foreign oil,” “cares about our environment and being a good steward of our resources” and “believes ensuring access to high-quality, low-cost healthcare for Oregonians is a must.”
It also tested a handful of negative messages against Erickson, including describing him as “another right-wing Republican who supported overturning Roe vs. (sic) Wade to deny women in Oregon the right to choose an abortion” and “an out-of-touch millionaire extremist who has peddled MAGA conspiracy theories such as claiming that the 2020 election was stolen, the same ideology that fueled the January 6th insurrection.” The poll also referred to Erickson’s 2016 drunken driving arrest and guilty plea, asking “If Mike can’t be trusted to call an Uber, how can he be trusted to make the right call in Congress?”
Salinas campaign manager Simone Archer Krauss repeated several of those negative messages in a statement to the Capital Chronicle.
“Voters know Mike Erickson for who he really is: An out-of-touch millionaire and MAGA extremist who wants to ban abortion and raise taxes on the middle class,” she said. “In contrast, congresswoman Salinas comes from a working family and understands the challenges they face. She is fighting to protect our personal freedoms and make life more affordable for Oregon families. While we always knew this race would be tough, Andrea beat Mike Erickson once before. She fully intends.
Oregon Capital Chronicle is part of States Newsroom, a network of news bureaus supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Oregon Capital Chronicle maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Lynne Terry for questions: [email protected]. Follow Oregon Capital Chronicle on Facebook and Twitter.
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Julia Shumway is deputy editor of Oregon Capital Chronicle and has reported on government and politics in Iowa and Nebraska, spent time at the Bend Bulletin and most recently was a legislative reporter for the Arizona Capitol Times in Phoenix. An award-winning journalist, Julia most recently reported on the tangled efforts to audit the presidential results in Arizona.
