A nurse cares for a Covid patient in the intensive care unit at Salem Hospital on Friday, Aug. 20, 2021. (Amanda Loman/Salem Reporter)
Hospitalizations of patients with Covid-19 are declining faster than originally predicted, according to the latest forecast by Oregon Health & Science University.
Peter Graven, OHSU’s Covid forecaster, said Thursday that he expects hospitalizations to return to the level they were before omicron hit by March 20, about 10 days earlier than expected.
“We have had a substantial drop in the number of hospitalized patients in Oregon over the past week or so,” Graven said in a statement. “This doesn’t mean that we’re out of the woods. The number of cases are still significantly higher than they have been for most of the pandemic, but the decline over the past week provides relief for hospitals operating under severe strain — and will benefit all Oregonians who need timely care in a hospital.”
The number of people hospitalized for Covid peaked at 1,130. That had declined to about 790 as of Thursday. Graven expects that to fall to about 400 by March 20.
Some regions continue to face a shortage of beds. In Benton, Lincoln, Linn, Marion, Polk and Yamhill counties on Thursday, only 2 intensive care beds, about 2%, were free, and less than 1% of the 694 non-ICU beds were available. North central Oregon, covering Gilliam, Hood River, Sherman and Wasco counties, has no free ICU beds, but 10% of other hospital beds were available.
Graven said the rapid decline in hospitalizations is due in part to the widespread adherence to Oregon’s indoor mask rule for public places. Surveys show that 80% of Oregonians are wearing masks indoors and many are refraining from attending large indoor gatherings with people outside their households.
The Oregon Health Authority said that it would lift the mask requirement by the end of March at the latest, and could rescind it sooner if hospitalizations fall more rapidly than expected. The agency has based its Covid restrictions on Graven’s forecasts.
The agency intends to rescind the mask requirement for schools at the end of March, despite what happens with hospitalizations so administrators and educators have time to ensure that they can keep everyone safe. School boards across the state are considering policies for going forward, including whether to make masks optional after the state mandate lifts.
In the meantime, the health authority announced on Thursday that the Federal Emergency Management Agency would wind down its three mobile vaccinations sites in Oregon this month. They include sites at the Hood River County Fairgrounds in Hood River and the Douglas County Courthouse in Reedsport, which will close Saturday, and a site at Linn-Benton Community College in Albany that will close Feb. 28.
The health authority will keep its 10 high-volume sites open. Check this webpage for information about where to get a shot.
The omicron variant has mutated, as expected, and one of its cousins may be cause for concern, scientists say. Dubbed BA.2, it is up to 50% more infectious than the original omicron and may cause more severe disease, scientists say. It also doesn’t appear to respond to a monoclonal antibody treatment that’s been effective against the original strain. Monoclonal antibodies are produced in a lab and are meant to be given shortly after infection.
The second strain has been detected in 74 countries and 47 U.S. states, including Washington.
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