Oregonians have more money than before the pandemic and the state’s labor market will return to full health over the next two years.
Those are two takeaways from the quarterly economic revenue forecast released Tuesday.
According to the forecast, Oregonians’ incomes are 20% higher than before the pandemic because of unprecedented federal aid. Incomes have also returned to pre-pandemic levels and will grow 6 to 7% this year and next, the forecast said.
Tax revenue is also on the rise.
“The outlook for General Fund tax collections has been revised up by around 5% over the next few years,” the forecast said. “This translates into significantly more resources for policymakers.”
While the forecast states that inflation will pick up in the coming months, it expects it to be temporary.
The forecast also doesn’t make any definitive statements about the “kicker,” a payment made to taxpayers if actual state revenues exceed forecasted revenues by 2% or more over the two-year budget cycle. The forecast points out that tax filing deadlines were extended to May, and the ending balance of the current budget cycle could change by “hundreds of millions of dollars.”
-Jake Thomas
