A Covid-19 test swab is packaged up to be tested during a free drive-through testing clinic at Woodburn Ambulance Service on Tuesday, August 25. (Amanda Loman/Salem Reporter)
This story was updated Nov. 5 at 3:15 p.m.
Covid is spiking among Marion County residents, and local health leaders said this week they expect Gov. Kate Brown to put the county on the state watchlist because the source of too many infections can’t be traced.
The news comes as Oregon on Nov. 5 reported a record 805 new Covid infections statewide, shattering the previous record of 600 set Oct. 30. That includes 79 new cases in Marion County. The percentage of tests that are positive is on the rise both locally and statewide.
Most Oregonians and Marion County residents who get Covid recover. To date, 115 county residents have died with Covid, about 1.8% of reported cases. A state effort to track people diagnosed with Covid in March and April has found of those who survived the virus, a small number – 0.8% – were still reporting symptoms as of Sept. 16.
Hospitalizations of people with the virus are also rising in the mid-Willamette Valley, but the trend isn’t enough to alarm Salem Health’s infectious disease doctor, who said the hospital won’t be overwhelmed so long as people continue wearing masks and taking other health precautions.
“We haven’t had a massive surge,” said Jasmine Chaudhary, infectious disease doctor with Salem Health, which operates the region’s largest hospital. “That being said, we have been preparing for the possibility in terms of resources and ventilators.”
In other states, health officials have reported that recent surges are filling hospitals with Covid patients.
State and county officials are still pressing Oregonians to avoid social gatherings, which have proven to be a way for the coronavirus to spread.
In Marion County, infections were traced recently to an indoor baby shower with over 40 guests and a large local wedding with over 100 people present, according to a recent update by Alisa Zastoupil, public health program supervisor for Marion County.
“Many of the cases are being traced back to someone’s home with no known Covid contact,” Zastoupil told Marion County commissioners on Wednesday.
A rise in sporadic cases of Covid, those that can’t be traced to a source, concerns health officials because it means the spread of the virus is outpacing their ability to trace and contain new cases.
For the week of Oct. 25, Marion County couldn’t trace 58% of new infections to a known source, up from 33% the week prior.
The county recorded 239 sporadic cases of the virus over that two-week period, according to a recent report. Based on Marion County’s population, 175 such cases is enough to earn a spot on the state watchlist.
A watchlist placement means the county will get additional help from the Oregon Health Authority to respond to the pandemic, but does not impact the county’s reopening level or restrictions placed on local businesses or events.
The rising cases locally can’t be attributed to more testing for Covid.
Marion County reported 495 new cases of the virus in the past week, a 33% increase from the previous week, where health authorities reported 373 new cases. That included 131 new cases recorded on Nov. 1, the highest one-day total since the pandemic began. The number of people tested increased only 3%, from 3,829 to 3,940, according to a Salem Reporter review of Marion County data.
The Oregon Health Authority is also reporting more patients hospitalized with the virus in the mid-Willamette Valley – 33 on Nov. 4 compared to 22 two weeks ago. That comes as Oregon recorded its highest count of people hospitalized with the virus ever, 191, on Nov. 4, according to The Oregonian.
Delia Hernández, a spokeswoman for the health authority, said the state “remains concerned” about the trend both statewide and in the Salem area. She said hospitalizations and deaths from Covid lag reported increases in infections.
“While our infection rates remain low by national standards, OHA continues to discuss options with state leaders should the situation continue to worsen,” Hernández wrote, without offering specifics about policies under consideration.
Chaudhary said from the hospital’s perspective, the trends aren’t all bad.
While reported cases are much higher in Marion County now than at any point since the pandemic began, reported deaths haven’t climbed by a corresponding amount. Marion County reported 16 deaths related to Covid in September and 16 in October, down from a summer peak of 21 each for June and July.
Chaudhary said she thinks several factors explain the reduced mortality, including better infection control practices in nursing homes, which account for a majority of local deaths. Younger adults, who are less likely to become seriously ill with Covid, account for a majority of new cases, and the hospital is better equipped to treat patients as scientists and doctors have learned more about Covid, she said.
“Better treatments mean people stay for less (time) in the hospital and they’re less likely to be transferred to the ICU,” she said.
Still, health authorities have repeatedly cautioned that when Covid is widespread in a community, it’s far easier for someone who doesn’t realize they’re carrying the virus to pass it to an older or medically vulnerable person who’s likely to get seriously ill.
“Bottom line is we don’t know how our immune system is going to react to this virus and we know that people can shed this virus before they have symptoms,” Chaundry said.
Chaudhary said she expects the Salem area can weather the flu season – typically a time when hospitals are closest to capacity – if residents continue wearing masks, social distancing and get a flu vaccine.
Those health precautions have led to lower flu rates across the southern hemisphere, she said, leaving hospitals with more beds for people seriously ill with Covid. She urged residents to follow Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advice about celebrating upcoming holidays safely.
“We need to continue to work together as a community,” Chaudhary said.
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Contact reporter Rachel Alexander: [email protected] or 503-575-1241.
Rachel Alexander is Salem Reporter’s managing editor. She joined Salem Reporter when it was founded in 2018 and covers city news, education, nonprofits and a little bit of everything else. She’s been a journalist in Oregon and Washington for a decade. Outside of work, she’s a skater and board member with Salem’s Cherry City Roller Derby and can often be found with her nose buried in a book.
